🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However the current field is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still