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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.